Timing is everything in politics, and the timing of the race to fill state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson’s former seat in House District 93 has been set for May 1 — which falls on the second weekend of Jazz Fest. The runoff, if needed, will be May 29, which falls on Memorial Day weekend. Qualifying will be March 30-April 1, which is just days before Easter Sunday.

The election and qualifying dates were set by House Speaker Jim Tucker, R-Algiers, who the state constitution authorizes to call special elections to fill House vacancies. Tucker says he called the election for May 1 partly because that date is the next scheduled special election date (i.e., it’s already paid for by the state) and partly because he wants to make sure the district is represented during the upcoming legislative session, which begins March 29. The May 1 date also was recommended by Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, the state’s chief elections officer.

The timing of the special election was largely out of Tucker’s control. Peterson did not officially resign until last Monday, March 1, when she took her oath of office as a senator. Tucker could not legally call the election until she officially tendered her resignation.

Tucker may soon be calling another special election in the House for May 1 — depending on the outcome of the City Council runoff in District E. If state Rep. Austin Badon wins that seat — and if he resigns or announces his resignation prospectively soon enough — Tucker says he will schedule the election to fill his unexpired term in House District 100 for May 1 as well. “It’s important for those two districts to be represented in this session,” Tucker says. “Even if each race goes to a runoff, many of the biggest decisions come in the final weeks.” The session must end by June 21.

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Second District Assessor Claude Mauberret has withdrawn from the March 6 runoff to become New Orleans’ first citywide assessor, saying “the numbers are just not there” and that he wanted to avoid a racially polarized runoff against Second District Assessor Erroll Williams. Mauberret’s withdrawal automatically results in Williams’ election. Williams, who is black, has served as the Third District assessor since the mid-1980s. Mauberret, who is white, has represented the Second District for almost 16 years.

Williams finished first in the Feb. 6 primary with 45 percent of the vote, followed by Mauberret with 25.5 percent of the vote. Mauberret narrowly beat out deputy Sixth District Assessor Janis Lemle, who carried the “reform” mantle in that race and garnered 24.5 percent of the vote.

“Since [the Feb. 6 primary], I have spent many hours reviewing precinct returns with my advisors and key supporters in an effort to chart a winning strategy,” Mauberret said in a statement. “After much deliberation, I have concluded that it would be in the best interests of my friends, my supporters, my family and my city not to contest the runoff. I do this with mixed feelings.

“Assessor Erroll Williams has been a friend and colleague throughout my public career, and I did not look forward to a bruising campaign against someone for whom I have a great deal of personal and professional regard. Although my supporters encouraged me to soldier on, the reality is that the numbers are just not there for me to justify asking my family, my friends and my supporters to put forth the kind of effort required to win. In addition, despite the friendship that Erroll and I share, I fear that others would cast this election in racial terms and try to divide our citizens, who came together in unprecedented fashion on Feb. 6 across racial, geographic, party and socio-economic lines. I love my city too much to let anything threaten this historic time of unity.”

Mauberret carried a plurality of the white vote in the primary, and Williams won a plurality of the African-American vote. Mauberret’s statement echoes sentiments reflected by state Sen. Ed Murray when he withdrew from the mayor’s race in early January. Murray cited potential racial divisions in a runoff against Mitch Landrieu for his decision to drop out of the mayor’s race.

[Note to readers: The post below is my column for this week’s issue of Gambit. Immediately following is a full set of Troy Henry’s responses to the attacks, from an interview I did with him on Friday, Jan. 22. For reasons of space, I was not able to include all his comments in the Gambit column. — Clancy]

Greek lore tells us that the Siege of Troy lasted 10 years. In New Orleans politics, a week of sustained attacks can seem like a decade. Just ask mayoral candidate Troy Henry.

Henry has been under siege on several fronts in recent weeks, culminating in a barrage of criticism this past week from respected African-American figures and attack ads from one opponent. His critics say he brought it on himself. He says they’re all in cahoots with his real adversary, frontrunner Mitch Landrieu, and that he’s not letting it get to him. He’s also firing back.

The most public — and perhaps most damaging — criticism came from the family of the late Dutch Morial, New Orleans’ first black mayor. Henry’s campaign Web site recently carried a video tribute to Dr. Martin Luther King. The tribute, written by Henry’s son, included a family photo of the candidate’s late grandfather, longshoremen’s union leader Clarence “Chink” Henry, with MLK and local civil rights pioneers — including Dutch Morial. Another Henry family photo depicted the candidate’s mother, who was recently named Xavier University’s alumna of the year, with Xavier President Dr. Norman Francis and Civil Sheriff Paul Valteau. More than 100 photos appeared in the tribute.

Morial’s widow, Sybil Morial, fired off a letter to Henry rebuking him for using her late husband’s photo on a political Web site without first asking permission to do so. The Morial family “has never consented to the use of my late husband’s image, voice or likeness in campaign advertising, other than for the political organization he founded, the Louisiana Independent Federation of Electors (LIFE),” she wrote. A Morial family confidant told me afterward that even Marc Morial, who served as mayor from 1994-2002, refrained from using his late father’s image in his campaigns.

In her letter to Henry, which was released to the media, Mrs. Morial concluded, “We are offended by the lack of professionalism and respect of Mr. Henry’s campaign.”

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State Sen. Ed Murray’s withdrawal from the mayor’s race was the latest — and biggest — surprise in a contest that already has had more than its share of unexpected twists and turns. Here’s my take on what happened, why, who benefits, what’s next, and what it means in the long run:

What Happened

Murray’s campaign team had a meeting last Wednesday (Dec. 30) to review fresh poll numbers by Silas Lee and to discuss finances and strategy. The poll had Murray in low double digits but with potential to grow among black voters, most of whom (around 55 percent) were voting for frontrunner Mitch Landrieu. The lieutenant governor’s numbers in this poll showed him ahead by a large margin, with nearly 50 percent of the vote. When you account for the fact that “undecided” respondents in a poll tend not to vote, Landrieu already has a majority of the decided vote. Of course, that could change, but that’s where things stood last week.

The feeling among some of Murray’s top advisers was that, while much of Landrieu’s black support was rooted in a genuine sense of “buyers’ remorse” after Ray Nagin’s dismal performance over the past four years, a lot of that support was “soft” and could be peeled off Landrieu. It would require, however, that Murray attack Landrieu. It also would require Murray to raise another $400,000 to $700,000 to position himself to make a March 6 runoff. Murray already had loaned his campaign several hundred thousand dollars, and the message to him was that he might have to put more of his personal funds into the effort.

After Wednesday’s meeting, several of Murray’s top campaign folks began raising money and devising a strategy to go after Landrieu. There was even some hope that Orleans DA Leon Cannizzaro might endorse Murray, and soon, which would give his campaign a boost.

Murray himself, however, was not comfortable turning the race into another contest about race. He spent the next few days doing a gut check and decided on Saturday that he wasn’t going to play a race card just to get elected. Once he made up his mind about that, he moved quickly to get out — surprising even some of his closest friends and supporters. He did not consult with his top campaign strategists before making up his mind to get out.

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There never seems to be a recession in Louisiana political hijinks, as 2009 proved many times over. This was a year of tectonic shifts in the local political paradigm, and the coming year promises to bring more big changes. Herewith, our annual list of the Top 10 Political Stories:

1. Bill Jefferson’s Continued Slide — The former congressman’s misfortunes continued to pile up. He was convicted on 11 of 16 federal felony counts in August after a long-delayed trial in Virginia. Ironically, Jefferson was acquitted of the charge most closely related to the infamous $90,000 in cash that the feds retrieved from his freezer in 2005 — but jurors concluded that his congressional office was an ongoing criminal enterprise under the RICO statute. The trial judge sentenced him to 13 years but let him stay out of jail pending his appeal. In another twist, the U.S. Supreme Court is considering other cases that could overturn some of Jefferson’s convictions. Locally, Dollar Bill’s brother (and political muscle) Mose Jefferson was convicted of bribing a school board member in an unrelated case. Mose and Assessor Betty Jefferson (another Jefferson sibling) face still more federal charges with Mose’s gal pal (and Dollar Bill protégé) Renee Gill-Pratt. Politically, Jefferson’s once-dominant political machine, the Progressive Democrats, is in shambles. The Feb. 6 citywide elections will be the first in three decades in which Dollar Bill is not a factor.

2. The City Hall Scandals — There’s no telling how many separate criminal investigations are underway at City Hall. Former technology chief Greg Meffert was indicted on several dozen criminal counts, along with his wife Linda and former business partner Mark St. Pierre. St. Pierre is the city contractor who paid for the Mefferts and the Nagins to vacation in Hawaii in 2004 and for the Nagins to unwind — first class — in Jamaica shortly after Katrina (while the rest of us were still trying to get back home to New Orleans). On another front, the feds seized various City Hall computers after the mayor’s emails and 2008 calendar mysteriously disappeared (following a WWL-TV request for them under the state Public Records Act). Ironically, tons of City Council emails were produced by the Nagin Administration in response to an unrelated public records request — and some of those emails proved to be cautionary tales against writing things down. More recently, veteran Sewerage and Water Board member Ben Edwards was indicted on 33 counts of corruption, including alleged kickbacks. Edwards spent more than $250,000 “independently” helping Mayor Ray Nagin win re-election in 2006. As the clock winds down on Ray Nagin’s tenure in City Hall, the feds appear to be tightening the circle of suspicion around him.

3. The Mayor’s Race — For a while it seemed that nobody wanted Ray Nagin’s job — then everybody seemed to want it. After a yawner of a preseason, Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu lit up the field with his eleventh-hour decision to run. The fallout came quickly as school reformer Leslie Jacobs dropped out a week later. Landrieu, who is making his third bid for the mayor’s office, is once again the early frontrunner. The race for the City Council’s two at-large seats promises to be filled with intrigue as well. Incumbent Arnie Fielkow waited until the last day to qualify, prompting former at-large Councilman Eddie Sapir to jump in. Assessor Darren Mire was another late entry, which seemed to guarantee a scrambled field. Then both Sapir and Mire dropped out on the same day, right before Christmas. State Rep. Austin Badon, who was the first to announce for mayor, was among the first to drop out of that contest, opting instead to run for the council from District E, where he is the early favorite.

4. Suburban Scandals — The feds have been busy all over southeast Louisiana. They indicted and convicted St. John Parish President Bill Hubbard on extortion and money laundering charges, St. Bernard Judge Wayne Cresap on bribery charges, and Mandeville Mayor Eddie Price on tax evasion and depriving citizens of honest services via mail fraud. Meanwhile, FBI agents are looking into Jefferson Parish Chief Administrative Officer Tim Whitmer’s insurance commission-splitting deals in connection with insurance business at West Jefferson General Hospital and among various parish contractors. Some big names are said to be involved, and this could be the beginning of another round of “Jefferson Scandals.” Look for some fireworks to start in the Jefferson Parish scandal before Mardi Gras, my sources say.

5. Ray Nagin’s Unraveling — Could he possibly be more obtuse, more detached, more disengaged — and less effective as a mayor? While in Cuba (on a junket), he praised Castro’s evacuation plans. That came after he failed to convince the City Council to buy the nondescript Chevron Building and make it the new City Hall. Earlier in the year, he thumbed his nose at the courts and the state Public Records Act when his calendar and emails somehow disappeared. When an outside contractor said that the emails were deleted deliberately by someone who knew what they where doing, he fired the contractor. Meanwhile, a growing list of people who once were close to him are under federal indictment. Here’s the good news: he’ll be gone in 18 weeks.

6. Bobby Jindal’s Minus Touch — The Boy Governor started 2009 as the Wunderkind of the national GOP. Then came his disastrous response to Barack Obama’s first national address and his failure to show any coattails in three separate special elections — including a bid by his former executive counsel for the state Supreme Court in northeast Louisiana (which is supposed to be a Jindal stronghold). As he continues to raise millions nationally for his campaign war chest, the state faces major budget problems.

7. State and City Budget Woes — Bobby Jindal told a state cost-cutting commission to “be bold” in their recommendations. Gee, wasn’t that what we elected him to do as governor? Lawmakers anguished over cutting about $1 billion in operating funds this year, but it only gets worse in the next two years. Locally, Mayor Ray Nagin announced a $68 million deficit, then took a taxpayer-paid trip to Mexico to sign a feel-good sister city agreement. When the City Council revised his proposed budget, Hizzoner retaliated by slashing key services — and then blamed it all on the council. Plus ça change.

8. David Vitter’s Run-up to 2010 — The Biggest Hypocrite in America remains an early favorite to win back his U.S. Senate seat, but not without a fight. He initially drew a potential rival in porn star Stormy Daniels of Baton Rouge, but now he will have a real opponent in Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon. Vitter continues to poll below 50 percent but remains 10 points or more above his main opponents. His infamous bad temper flared up again during an incident at Reagan National Airport when he tried to board a plane late, and all the national attention he’s gets every time there’s another sex scandal anywhere sure makes Louisiana (if not Vitter himself) look bad. Not that he cares.

9. The Saints Deal — For the first time since the state started subsidizing the city’s NFL franchise in 1985, a deal to keep the beloved Saints in New Orleans did not tear the Legislature apart and cost the city valuable political capital. Maybe it’s because Gov. Bobby Jindal also wanted lawmakers to approve $50 million to bail out a north Louisiana chicken processing plant. South Louisiana leges immediately said, “Deal!” Cluck, cluck! Go Saints!

10. The City’s New Master Plan — Like everything else worthwhile that happens here, the city’s new master plan has endured a rough birthing process, but the end results will hopefully be worth it. Don’t let the fact that I’ve listed this as No. 10 fool you. This will be a very important story for decades if we get it right.

A final note: I left former Recovery Chief Ed Blakely off my list of most important political stories. That’s because, even when he was here, Blakely was largely irrelevant. His ridiculous, self-serving comments after his departure proved that.

Here’s hoping 2010 brings better news.

Several sources have confirmed that Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu will announce tomorrow (Tuesday) that he is running for mayor after all. Why the back-and-forth Hamlet routine — again? That’s probably the first thing Landrieu will have to explain. What’s certain is that Landrieu’s entry into the race will turn it upside down. He probably enters as the frontrunner. The big question is, can he close this time?

Another big question: Will any other candidates bow out? Most adversely affected by Landrieu’s decision will be all the white candidates except Rob Couhig, the race’s only Republican. Leslie Jacobs and John Georges have both said privately that they would not run if Landrieu were in the race. That he waited this long is not going to play well with their top supporters, but that’s show biz … and politics.

I have it from several sources very close to Landrieu, including some who actually heard it from him, that he called all the candidates today to let them know, after telling Gov. Bobby Jindal as well. Which means, of course, that this news won’t stay bottled up for long.

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In his bid to reclaim the Distirct A seat on the New Orleans City Council, former Councilman Jay Batt will have at least two opponents in the Feb. 6 primary — one a fellow Republican and one a Democrat. The Republican is Virginia Blanque, a businesswoman who also has worked for at-large Councilman Arnie Fielkow. The Democrat is attorney Susan Guidry, who also is president of the Parkview Neighborhood Association.

While Batt has much more name recognition than his two announced opponents, he lost to then-unknown Shelley Midura in 2006 in the face of a significant “Anybody But Batt” groundswell. Presumably, he knows not to take any of his opponents lightly this time. Leaders of the “Anybody But Batt” movement vow to resume their efforts.

Batt had signaled his intentions to run against Midura, but prospects for a rematch of their 2006 contest were dashed when Midura announced that she would not seek another term. For a while it appeared Batt would coast to an easy victory, but now he will have at least two opponents.

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Things have come full circle on Ray Nagin. In 2002, he cast himself as the anti-Morial, the squeaky-clean “businessman” who was going to sweep out the corruption of the previous administration. After Friday’s 63-count corruption indictment against former city technology chief Greg Meffert — once Nagin’s top aide and close friend — it’s hard to distinguish our present mayor from his predecessor.

Actually, that may be unfair to former Mayor Marc Morial, who does not appear to be in danger of indictment — although several of his cronies went to jail. Nagin, on the other hand, could well become a target of the ongoing federal investigation into City Hall corruption. Moreover, the feds didn’t indict any of Morial’s pals until he was out of office. Meffert’s indictment came with six months left in Nagin’s term.

The charges against Meffert, his wife Linda, and former city contractor Mark St. Pierre — who previously worked for Meffert in the private sector — paint a picture of an administration run amok and of a public official drunk with power. Even casual observers of Meffert’s days in City Hall were struck by his arrogance. He referred to himself as the “deputy mayor,” even though the position didn’t (and still doesn’t) exist. He also bragged that he owned the yacht Silicon Bayou, on which he entertained friends and Nagin contributors, even though St. Pierre owned the vessel.

Then again, according to the federal indictment, the lines between St. Pierre’s private-sector dealings and Meffert’s public-sector responsibilities were often blurred, if not ignored, for their mutual benefit.

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To hear former City Hall technology guru Greg Meffert tell it, it’s hard out here for a pimp. A pimp for the city, that is.

That’s how Meffert described himself from the witness stand last week while testifying in a high-stakes civil trial. Two local firms initially hired by Meffert’s office are now suing Meffert, the city, Mayor Ray Nagin and computer giant Dell for allegedly conspiring to steal the local companies’ crime camera technology.

So far, Meffert has been the star witness — but not necessarily for his own or his fellow defendants’ cause.

Asked to explain an email in which he told a favored contractor that an industry conference offered a “chance for me to pimp your guys stuff,” Meffert said he meant it as an opportunity to promote the city’s accomplishments — which seems equally galling in light of how little the Nagin Administration has accomplished post-Katrina. “I did a hell of a lot of pimping for the city,” he deadpanned.

Poor Meffert. He took a 50 percent pay cut to take a job that enabled him to help his friend and former business associate, Mark St. Pierre, score a multi-million dollar crime camera contract from the city — but, like aspiring rapper DJay in the film Hustle and Flow, he’s still gotta get money for his Cadillacs — not to mention his yacht, strippers, and some first-class vacations for himself and Mayor Ray Nagin.

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Photographs courtesy of Greg Rhoades

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John Georges hasn’t officially come out and said that he’s running for mayor — he came just barely shy of saying so on the radio — but considering his actions of late, you could pretty much count on it. See that picture up there? That’s Georges with Jazzfest founder Quint Davis (far left in white jacket) on the back of a car at the head of the Young Olympia 125th Anniversary Second Line back on Sunday. See that bag Georges is holding in his lap? Well they were full of these:

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He was also handing out plastic cups and Mardi Gras beads with the same slogans on them. Oh, and GeorgesforMayor.com has been booked, meaning somebody (probably Georges) has bought the rights to the URL and is creating a site for it.

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We were there filming second line footage for our brass band documentary and noticed Georges handing out the trinkets. With all the people that were out on Sunday (not sure on the actual count but it had to be in the thousands) I can’t think of a better grassroots effort than giving out plastic cups at a second line — most of which were promptly filled with booze.

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Now far be it from me, a humble sports and entertainment writer, to do any political prognosticating. But when someone who has already run for governor of Louisiana is talking about his possible platform on the radio on one day and is then handing out “Georges for Mayor” trinkets on the next, it’s a good chance that that person is most likely running for mayor. Official announcement or not.

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Oh, and it always helps to have a guy like Quint Davis on your side. That should keep people from making any references to Tommy Carcetti from “The Wire” (though he did become Mayor of Baltimore and then Governor, so that may not be a bad thing).

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